The Boston Celtics are set to face the Indiana Pacers in the Eastern Conference Finals, with Game 1 from Boston beginning on Tuesday night.
The Pacers defeated the New York Knicks in Game 7 from Madison Square Garden on Sunday, helping them reach their first East Finals in a decade, since Paul George was the face of the franchise in 2014.
For the Celtics, though the Knicks finally ran out of gas and were beaten up with a rotation riddled with injuries, the inexperienced, young Indiana team widens their elusive championship path of the final two rounds even more. You can also say the Minnesota Timberwolves defeating the defending champion Denver Nuggets does as well, given the Boston-Denver national discourse throughout the NBA season.
The top-two offensive teams in the league, Boston won three out of five matchups with the Pacers this season–that many due to the NBA’s In-Season Tournament. The Celtics were eliminated by them in the IST, with each of the losses being without Kristaps Porzingis and Jayson Tatum. ESPN’s Adrian Wojnarowski reported on Friday night that the Celtics center is expected to miss at least the first two contests of the series.
Jaylen Brown, leading his Celtics in tremendous fashion, spoke on the on-going expectations during this run of being title or bust. He knows Boston is the topic of discussion, appropriately, here in their historic 72-20 season, where they have had the fifth best in NBA History analytically. Every national broadcast each night, even when they are not playing, knowing the NBA goes through the Celtics.
“You do your best to block it out,” Brown said. “You’ve just got to focus on what matters the most…Be able to focus the mind on what matters because it’s easy to get distracted.”
Brown went in-depth on while he tries to ignore the noise he does see and hear about, it is unavoidable. The All-NBA forward does his best to not get distracted by it.
Game 1 on Tuesday night from TD Garden will tip-off at 8 p.m. EST on ESPN.
Although Al Horford will likely win the tip more often than not, it’s still a bit murky. Therefore, I am rolling with Jaylen Brown to score Boston’s first basket, which includes free throws.
Brown took Boston’s first shot in about 31% of his regular-season starts, which led the team. Although he has only taken the first shot in one of six games since Kristaps Porziņģis’ injury, he has cashed their first basket three times.
This matchup also heavily favors him. Indiana gave up the most restricted area attempts per 100 possessions this regular season, along with the second-most paint attempts. Opponents are still exploiting them near the basket this postseason too. Brown paces Boston in attempts per game at the rim, so his shot profile places him in an excellent position to score.
Given Indiana’s rim protection woes, I’m also playing Brown first basket exact layup. His slashing should give him plenty of rim attempts this series, so it’s worth a bet at +1700 odds (5.5% implied probability). Overall, Brown’s first basket usage and shot profile make him a tantalizing option against Indiana.
I would play Brown first Celtics basket at 1u and Brown first basket exact layup at 0.4u.
Jrue Holiday did not come close to matching Brown’s team first shot percentage; however, his 20% mark was second best of the current starters. Holiday’s first basket usage has also taken a leap this playoffs. The veteran owns Boston’s first attempt in 4-of-10 games, including 2-of-6 games since Horford entered the starting lineup.
Plus, Holiday has averaged the third-most paint attempts during Boston’s playoff run, so he can take advantage of Indiana’s weaknesses.
Holiday’s +450 odds hold an 18.1% implied probability. If a Celtics starter was drawn at random, then they would have a 20% chance to cash the first basket. Factor in Holiday’s first basket usage and paint attempt, and the veteran easily clears the 18.1% threshold. I expect this line to take a significant hit once the series progresses.
Playing this prop at 0.6u is my recommendation.
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